Do the Red Sox Stink?

I know I sound like a cross between Shaugnessy, Lobel, and every chuckah Red Sox fan pre-Dave Roberts steal of second, but this team has holes. In the words of Chucky, I don't know much, but I know that. And I do have a history of calling these things as evidenced by my Rays blog last year before the All Star Break. I took heat for that, but it turns out I was right (what's that thing about the sun shining on a dog's ass every once in awhile?).

But I know what you're saying. "That was eighty games big mouth, not seven."

And you're right. It has been only seven games. But I've got to say. I already see this thing going badly. I do. And I have the history to back it up because this stuff happens all the time in baseball. Rewind to the 2008 pre-season and think what was written about a team that pushed the World Champs to seven games in the ALCS just six months before.

The league was talking about a team that could be a potential dynasty. This team had two young studs at the front of their rotation, a bopping designated hitter with a cool nickname, a five tool centerfielder, a bunch of solid 5,6,7 hitters who could jack 20 homers a piece, and they had a bullpen that had a bunch of fireballers. Oh, this team also happened to have a catcher who could hit .300 with 25 homers and 100 RBI, something this current version of the Red Sox definitely doesn't have.

That team was The Cleveland Indians. And by the end of the year, one of their young stud starters (CC Sabathia) was gone, the other (Fausto Carmona) was walking more people per game than Matt Young, their bopping DH (Travis Hafner) cool nickname (Pronk) hit .197, their five tool center fielder (Grady Sizemore) was striking out too much and hitting below .270, some of their middle tier boppers bopped (Johnny Peralata)... But other's did not (Asdrubal Cabrera), their bullpen was in disarray and that catcher? He hit two home runs. I know this because he led my pretend baseball team to a second to last place finish.

While the Indians did not tank (they finished 81-81), they were certainly considered a disappointment and when I saw them late in the year on the MLB Network, I did not see a lot of Pink Indian Hats sitting in the bleachers. Instead, I saw a lot of seats that were unfilled. And this exact thing can happen to the Red Sox because well... This thing happens in baseball. A lot.

Sometimes, no matter what the match ups look like on paper, they just don't translate to the field. Be it a rash of injuries, bad chemistry, untimely hitting, or just untimely luck, these things can happen. And right here, on April 14th, I am telling you it is going to happen to the Red Sox. Here's why.

1. Ortiz Might Be Done: Be it a clicking in the wrist, age, weight, no Manny, or a combination of all of those things, Ortiz is not what he once was. Again, there is a history of this in baseball from Cecil Fielder to Mo Vaughn to Greg Vaughn. Big, power hitting, lumbering first base types don't fade away, they burn out. Ortiz is clearly not the same guy he was two years ago and even then, did any of us believe it was going to last?!? When he carried the Red Sox through the 2004 post season and then hit 54 homers after that, I STILL didn't think he was a good player. I was always waiting for the other shoe to drop and while he proved me wrong for three years, I'm here to tell you that the other shoe has officially dropped.

2. Jon Lester Strikes No fear In Me Because He Has Absolutely No Out Pitch: I love Jon Lester. I really do. But even when he was dominating last year, didn't you always say, "how is he doing this?" Granted Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine did the exact same thing as both are first ballot Hall of Famers, but Lester just doesn't do it for me and it is because he isn't that dominating guy. He'll likely prove me wrong and probably have a phenomenal big league career, but these seasons happen to even really good pitchers. Andy Pettitte (who might be a Lester clone- not a bad thing by the way) burst onto the scene and had a sub 3.80 ERA in his first four years (in a hitters era). He then threw up a 4.70 ERA in his fifth year. Not because he's bad, but because this stuff happens and it could happen to Lester this year.

3a. We In Boston Way Overrate Our Young Guys And These Particular Young Guys Might Have Some Problems: No matter how cute you think they are or how much you hate Julio Lugo, Jacoby Ellsbury might not be that good and Jed Lowrie certainly isn't that good. Ellsbury is the type of exciting player all baseball fans love, but he is not an on base machine and the power certainly isn't there right now. He may be good and I want him to be awesome, but similar leadoff hitters like Hanley Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran were all better at Ellsbury's age and certainly had better tools than Jacoby does. He might just be what he is... A slap hitter with great speed who will run down balls in center. He will likely be closer to Dave Roberts and Darren Lewis than Johnny Damon. And Lowrie? Stop it people. He's a utility guy. The clutch doubles were nice when he first came up last year but he cooled off and water seeks it's level. Pedroia he is not.


3b. What's The Backup Plan When These Guys Tank?:Nick Green (while super dreamy ladies... Check him out to the right) and Rocco "I can't play two days in a row" Baldelli? Ouch!

4. Pedroia and Paps Can't Keep This Up: Aagain, they could be Craig Biggio and Mariano Rivera and walk into the Hall of Fame twenty years from now, but like Lester, baseball doesn't allow for flawless careers. What's Pedroia's ceiling?!? Can he be better than last year? I say no way. He can be as good, but you need good players around you. And Paps? With the exception of a few closers (Rivera, Hoffman, Wagner), these guys can't do it for even three straight years. Playoff hero and team MVP Brad Lidge of last years World Champs lost his job several times before regaining it last year. Again, I'll likely be wrong, but I'm just saying.

5. Bay, Drew, and Lowell: Remember those middle tier Indian guys I said COULD hit 25 bombs and drive in 90? Well, they could also play 150 games and hit .236 with 8 homers (Don't believe me? Go to baseball-refernce.com, type in Mike Lowell, scroll down to his 2005 year). For a team to win, guys like this have to play well SIMULTANEOUSLY. If just one plays well and the other two don't, it becomes a major problem. They are certainly all solid players and CAN have great years, but one guy is coming off major hip surgery, one is playing his first full year in a new league, and the other has a... How should I put this..? History? This trio doesn't worry me as much as some of the others, but they are certainly not Hall of Famers.

6. Daisuke: He's my favorite player on the Sox, but there is no way he gets the league to go 0-16 with the bases loaded as he did last year. And not to get too basbeall statistic technical, but the statistics say that a pitcher cannot put as many men on base and get out of as many jams as he did last year. For those of you less statistically savvy, I'll use these two words: Hideo Nomo.

7. The Red Sox Have The Least Frightening Bunch Of Supposed Superstars I've Ever Seen On A Team Picked By Many To Go To The World Series: They need an intimidator like Chewie out there. For real. Okay seriously, I know what the statistics say. And I love statistics. I know that Youkilis and Pedroia are awesome. And Beckett too. But for some reason, no one on this team instills the utmost confidence in me. No one's at bat or start is an event. If I were dating a Yankee fan (actually, I am!), I would tell them to be scared of NO ONE on this team. I know that a lot of them are young and will have a chance to develop that pedigree and I also know that workman like "teams" from the Twins to the Angels have produced winners, but who on this team would you want up at bat or on the mound in a "must" situation? There is no Pedro in his prime or Pujols or 2004 Papi or 1989 Dave Stewart on this team. In fact, there isn't even a Josh Hamilton or an A-Rod (shut up people... He's carried teams before). There are just a bunch of... Really boring guys who at the end of the year may wind up winning 81 games. And that's not good enough.

Or, they will win 96, capture the East, and roll on into The World Series as the anti-2004 Idiots.

And maybe that's part of my problem.

I had The Idiots. I want The Idiots. I need The Idiots. I love The Idiots.

Because not only does this team bore me, but I think they have the potential to be boring and to suck.

Not a good combination.